The dollar index hit its highest level since April 2025 and gold gave back its gains. But Tuesday's trading shows Fed rate expectations, not the currency alone, are doing most of the damage.
US-listed gold ETFs took in $3.7 billion of net new money during September's sell-off. The data points to yields, the dollar and fast-money positioning, not fund holders, as the main sellers.
Indian dealer discounts narrowed sharply as gold pulled back, an early sign festive buyers are returning. But a 15% import duty, collapsed August imports and price-sensitive demand mean India looks more like a cushion than an engine for global gold.
Before China's holiday shutdown, Shanghai gold traded $26+ an ounce over London, the widest since June. The SGE's reopening on October 8 is the first real test of whether that physical demand holds.
The US added just 29,000 jobs in September and October rate-hike odds collapsed. Gold still fell more than 3% on the week. The report delayed the Fed's next hike; it didn't cancel it.
September hit both metals, but silver much harder. Silver is about 50% off its January peak versus roughly 26% for gold, and the gold/silver ratio has climbed from below 50 to about 68. Here is why, and what it does not mean.
China added 20 tonnes in August and Poland keeps buying, and Goldman thinks true official demand is far higher than reported. That still hasn't stopped a 9% monthly slide. Here's what the data shows.
Gold slid to a near two-month low on 29 September 2026 even as oil hovered near $100. The evidence points to rising US real yields and Fed hike bets, while central-bank and Chinese demand work on a slower clock.
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